Florence could slow down and pound, drench Southeastern NC

Hurricane Florence could drop more than 20 inches of rain in places, bring 12-foot storm surge

11 p.m. update:

Hurricane Florence continues to churn toward the U.S. mainland with potentially highly destructive winds and enough rain to thoroughly drench and possibly flood much of Eastern North Carolina.

But perhaps the most dangerous part of the storm is its future speed.

“Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into Friday,” stated the 11 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center.

That could mean a powrful, slow-moving storm just pounding and soaking Southeastern North Carolina for an extended period of time.

The center, with its 11 p.m. update, reported that Florence was roughly 670 miles east-southeast of Bald Head Island with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. The Category 4 storm was moving west-northwest at 17 mph.

While Florence is expected to strengthen as it approaches the Carolina coast, the storm will weaken before it makes landfall.

The latest projections from the hurricane center show the “cone of uncertainty” extending from roughly Georgetown, S.C., to Cape Lookout. The middle of the cone shows Florence coming ashore around Topsail Island — a slightly southern tweak from earlier projections.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for all of the N.C. coast and into South Carolina.

“A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous,” the warning states. “Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.”

The hurricane center is continuing to forecast very dangerous storm surge and rip currents kicked up by the storm for the entire N.C. coast.

>>READ MORE: Click here for complete coverage of Hurricane Florence.

8 p.m. update: Life-threatening storm surge anticipated

SOUTHEASTERN N.C. — As Hurricane Florence continues to edge toward North Carolina, the National Weather Service’s Wilmington office anticipates the storm will cause “life-threatening” storm surge along parts of the coast.

Hurricane and storm surge warnings have been in effect for most of the North Carolina coast since 5 p.m. The latest briefing from the National Weather Services estimates that coastal areas from the Cape Fear River to Cape Lookout could see storm surge as high as 9 to 13 feet as the storm reaches the region.

Areas from the Cape Fear River south to North Myrtle Beach — including Brunswick County beaches — are forecasted to see surge of 6 to 9 feet, the briefing states. The bulk of storm surge and wind impacts are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday.

A rainfall map in the briefing indicates parts of New Hanover County and Pender County could see upwards of 20 inches of rainfall from Florence. Forecasters predicted parts of Brunswick County could receive upwards of 10 to 15 inches of rain, with the heaviest downpour coming in the east.

At 8 p.m. the National Hurricane Center also released its latest update on Florence, showing the storm remaining on track for landfall sometime Friday. Florence remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane, and as of 8 p.m. was spinning about 725 miles east-southeast of Bald Head Island, moving west-northwest at 17 mph.

Florence’s maximum sustained winds remained at 140 mph.

The National Hurricane Center’s next full update on the storm is scheduled for 11 p.m.

5 p.m. update: Region under hurricane warning

SOUTHEASTERN N.C. — The National Hurricane Center has placed nearly all of coastal North Carolina under a hurricane warning as of 5 p.m. Tuesday.

The warning runs from South Carolina’s Santee River to Duck on the North Carolina Outer Banks. A storm surge warning is also in effect for the entire area as of 5 p.m. Florence remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane, and was spinning about 785 miles east-southeast of Bald Head Island, moving west-northwest at 17 mph.

Florence is expected to slow down late Thursday into Friday, before the storm is forecasted to make landfall. Maximum sustained winds, as of 5 p.m., were recorded at 140 mph, with more strengthening expected Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The storm’s track appears roughly the same as earlier projections Tuesday, but with a slight wobble south. The National Hurricane Center’s next full update on the storm is scheduled for 8 p.m.

2 p.m. update: Florence getting more organized, bigger

Hurricane-force winds have expanded and now extend up to 60 miles from the storm’s center. Florence’s tropical storm-force winds now extend up to 170 miles out.

The National Hurricane Center also has upped potential rainfall amounts to 15-20 inches, with parts of Eastern North Carolina seeing more than 20 inches.

As of 2 p.m., Florence was 845 miles east-southeast of Bald Head Island with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. The Category 4 storm was moving west-northwest at 17 mph.

Storm surge from Florence could reach up to 6 feet south of the Cape Fear River, and up to 12 feet between the Cape Fear and Cape Lookout. The hurricane center said “life-threatening storm surge is possible along the coasts of North and South Carolina.”

A hurricane watch is in effect for all of North Carolina. A watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area and is typically issued 48 hours before the arrival of tropical storm-force winds — sustained winds of 39 mph or stronger.

A rip current warning also has been issued for all Brunswick, New Hanover and Pender beaches.

The 2 p.m. update shows little deviation from earlier forecast tracks, with the “cone of uncertainty” still covering most of Eastern North Carolina. The forecast projects Florence making landfall somewhere in Onslow County Friday morning, which is a bit later than previous projections.

11 a.m. update: Florence continues plodding toward NC coast

WILMINGTON — The track of Hurricane Florence remains on course to slam into the North Carolina coast, although the exact location remains to be determined — with all of Southeastern North Carolina still well within the storm’s “cone of uncertainty.”

The National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. update showed Florence to be roughly 900 miles east-southeast of Bald Head Island, moving at 16 mph in a west-northwest direction.

The powerful storm had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, classifying it as a Category 4 hurricane.

The hurricane center said Florence is expected to begin re-strengthening later today and is expected to continue getting stronger into Wednesday. While the storm will weaken before making landfall, it is still expected to be a major hurricane — Category 3 or stronger — when it comes ashore.

The 11 a.m. update showed the projected path of Florence to continue its slight turn to the north, with the center of the “cone of uncertainty” heading over Onslow County.

If that track holds, the northeast quadrant of the storm — the most dangerous part of a hurricane, which spins counterclockwise — would hit Carteret County and the Cape Lookout area.

Along with wind gusts expected to be well above 100 mph, emergency officials are extremely concerned about Florence bringing up to a foot or more of rain to inland areas of Eastern North Carolina that have historically had trouble dealing with heavy rain events. Many of the areas that could get soaked are ? that have yet to fully recover from the flooding caused by Hurricane Matthew in 2016.

“We’re looking at probably stronger than Fran,” said Tom Collins, Pender County’s emergency management director, referring to the 1996 Category 3 hurricane that hammered beach towns in New Hanover and Pender counties. “It’s going to be worse than Fran.”

9 a.m. update: Wilmington region under hurricane watch

The Wilmington region was placed under hurricane and storm surge watches Tuesday morning as Hurricane Florence continued churning toward the region.

“Life threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coast,” Steven Pfaff, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Wilmington, said in a briefing at 7 a.m. Tuesday. “Damaging hurricane force winds are likely along portions of the coast as well. The damaging winds could also spread well inland.”

On Tuesday morning, President Donald Trump signed an emergency declaration for North Carolina, making federal emergency aid available to the state to respond to Hurricane Florence. The order is retroactive to Sept. 7 and authorizes the Federal Emergency Management Agency to provide federal resources “to alleviate the impacts of the emergency.”

The storm, which became a powerful, category 4 hurricane Monday, had maximum sustained winds of 140 mph as it moved west-northwest at 15 mph about 975 miles from Wilmington, according to a National Hurricane Center advisory issued at 5 a.m. Tuesday.

It is expected to start delivering tropical force winds early Thursday before making landfall as a “high end” category 3 hurricane early Friday morning.

>>READ MORE: Click here for complete coverage of Hurricane Florence.

The latest models released Tuesday morning show that Florence has taken a slightly northward track, with the eye making landfall about 100 miles northeast of Wilmington — on Monday, models showed the hurricane taking dead aim at the Port City. But Victoria Oliva, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Wilmington, said the new models do not mean people should breathe a sigh of relief.

“We should definitely be concerned. There is almost no chance of it turning out to sea,” she said. The storm is “currently 400 miles wide. Overall, both Carolinas are going to see impacts from the storm.”

The storm surge and hurricane watches extend from Edisto Beach, S.C., to North Carolina’s border with Virginia, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Oliva said Florence has the potential to continue strengthening Tuesday, possibly reaching category 5 status, which means maximum sustained winds of more than 158 mph.

In addition to winds and storm surges, weather officials said Florence will slow once it makes landfall, delivering tropical force winds and drenching rains to the Carolinas through Sunday.

“The models keep showing it’s going to stall when it reaches inland, which means lots of rain,” Oliva said. “It’s one of the biggest threats.”

The latest forecast calls for most of the rain to fall northeast of the Wilmington region, which is still expected to receive up to 10 inches in some areas. The National Weather Service predicted up to 21 inches of rain in some areas, including Pamlico County.

Brunswick County and several municipalities in Southeastern North Carolina have already ordered a mandatory evacuation of coastal areas. The towns of Kure Beach and Carolina Beach also ordered mandatory evacuations, with Carolina Beach officials requiring residents to be off the island by 8 p.m. Wednesday.

Wrightsville Beach also ordered a mandatory evacuation beginning at 8 a.m. Wednesday.

New Hanover County recommended a voluntary evacuation Monday evening, saying residents should find a safe location by 8 p.m. Wednesday. A shelter for residents, including those with pets, will open at Trask Middle School at 7 p.m. Tuesday. Another shelter at Southeast Raleigh Magnet High School at 2600 Rock Quarry Road in Raleigh will open for New Hanover County residents at 6 p.m. Tuesday.

In an appearance in Wilmington on Monday, Gov. Roy Cooper said he had activated 200 National Guard troops to be ready to respond to the storm and activated the state emergency operations center in Raleigh. While the governor said he cannot order mandatory evacuations on his own, he would encourage counties to do so.

Reporter Tim Buckland can be reached at 910-343-2217 or Tim.Buckland@StarNewsOnline.com.

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